ثبات شاخص دلار در آستانه گزارش اشتغال؛ نوسانات DXY در راه است؟
شاخص دلار آمریکا (DXY) که ارزش دلار را در برابر شش ارز اصلی ردیابی میکند، در این جمعه ثابت معامله میشود و در زمان نگارش این گزارش در سطح 109.17 قرار دارد. بازارها برای چند ساعت نگرانیهای مربوط به تورم را کنار گذاشتهاند، موضوعی که در طول این هفته محور اصلی بوده است. این نگرانیها اکنون به پسزمینه منتقل شدهاند، در حالی که بازارهای سهام آسیا در آستانه پایان هفته با پنج روز ریزش متوالی قرار دارند.
تقویم اقتصادی ایالات متحده در روز جمعه بسیار جالب توجه است، با انتشار گزارش حقوق و دستمزد غیرکشاورزی (NFP) دسامبر و گزارش اولیه دانشگاه میشیگان برای ژانویه. انتظارات برای گزارش NFP از 100,000 تا 268,000 متغیر است. هر عددی زیر 100,000 میتواند ضعف قابل توجهی برای دلار آمریکا ایجاد کند، در حالی که عددی نزدیک یا بالاتر از 268,000 باعث تقویت بیشتر دلار خواهد شد.
در ساعت 13:30 به وقت گرینویچ، گزارش اشتغال ایالات متحده برای دسامبر با عناصر کلیدی زیر منتشر خواهد شد:
- انتظار میرود دادههای اصلی حقوق و دستمزد غیرکشاورزی 160,000 کارگر جدید را نشان دهد، در مقابل 227,000 در نوامبر.
- انتظار میرود نرخ بیکاری در 4.2% ثابت بماند.
- انتظار میرود میانگین درآمد ساعتی ماهانه در دسامبر از 0.4% به 0.3% کاهش یابد.
در ساعت 15:00 به وقت گرینویچ، دانشگاه میشیگان گزارش اولیه ژانویه خود را منتشر میکند:
- انتظار میرود شاخص احساسات مصرفکننده در 73.8 بالا بماند، کمی پایینتر از 74.0 قبلی.
- انتظار تورم مصرفکننده 5 ساله پیشبینی نشده است و در قرائت نهایی دسامبر در 3% بود.
بازارهای سهام در این جمعه کند به نظر میرسند، با بسته شدن منفی روزانه برای چین و ژاپن. ابزار FedWatch CME احتمال 93.1% را پیشبینی میکند که نرخهای بهره در نشست ژانویه بدون تغییر باقی بمانند. انتظار میرود فدرال رزرو (Fed) با عدم قطعیتهایی که میتواند مسیر تورم را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد، وابسته به دادهها باقی بماند، زمانی که دونالد ترامپ در 20 ژانویه به عنوان رئیسجمهور منتخب کار خود را آغاز کند.
بازدهی اوراق قرضه 10 ساله ایالات متحده کمی کاهش یافته و در 4.689% قرار دارد، که از اوج تازه 9 ماهه 4.728% در روز چهارشنبه فاصله گرفته است. شاخص دلار آمریکا (DXY) در حال ورود به ده روز آخر معاملات خود تحت ریاست جمهوری جو بایدن قبل از آغاز به کار دونالد ترامپ در 20 ژانویه است. سوال این است که با توجه به اجماع کلی که سیاستهای ترامپ تورمزا خواهد بود و دلار آمریکا را تقویت خواهد کرد، چقدر نزول وجود دارد. انتظار میرود خریداران وارد شوند و به سرعت DXY را حتی با انتشار ضعیف حقوق و دستمزد غیرکشاورزی به بالا برگردانند.
در صعود، کلیدی است که خط روند صعودی سبز به عنوان حمایت حفظ شود، اگرچه این اغلب سناریوی پیش رو نیست. اگر DXY بتواند به بالای مانع روانی 110.00 برسد، 110.79 به سطح بزرگ بعدی تبدیل میشود. پس از آن، رسیدن به 113.91، سقف دوقلو از نوامبر 2023، فاصله زیادی دارد. در مقابل، اولین مانع نزولی 107.35 است که اکنون به حمایت تبدیل شده است. سطح بعدی که ممکن است هرگونه فشار فروش را متوقف کند 106.52 است، با میانگین متحرک ساده 55 روزه (SMA) در 106.72 که این منطقه حمایت را تقویت میکند.
نمودار روزانه شاخص دلار آمریکا:
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